Why the Cubs are taking a chance on Eric Hosmer for 2023

Late in the 2022 season, Cubs manager David Ross referred to first base as a “big hole.” It would be going too far to suggest that by agreeing to a deal with Eric Hosmer — pending a physical, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney — they’ve changed that narrative dramatically.

No, this is not a move that suddenly turns first base into a position of obvious strength. But this gives the Cubs a potential floor at another position where they had some of the worst offensive production in baseball in 2022. Last season, they had too many spots — second base (85 wRC+), center field (90) and first base (86) — where they got well-below-average offensive production.

Advertisement

The Cubs have now theoretically upgraded at each of those spots. By signing Dansby Swanson to play shortstop, they’ve improved second by shifting Nico Hoerner to the right side of the infield. They’ve given themselves a higher ceiling — but also the risk of little production — with Cody Bellinger in center. Now they can realistically hope Hosmer gives them a solid chance to not bottom out at first, too.

Last season, when the vast majority of their first-base plate appearances were largely spread between Alfonso Rivas, Frank Schwindel and P.J. Higgins, the Cubs lacked depth and some semblance of a history of production. Higgins’ 97 wRC+ was the highest of the group. All three have been designated for assignment over the last six months. Hosmer isn’t the “impact” bat the team is still sorely lacking after the departure of Willson Contreras, but by slightly to significantly improving in multiple spots, they raise the floor of the team as a whole.

Eric Hosmer (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Hosmer gives the Cubs some options and insurance. Matt Mervis is their top first-base prospect and he will be given a chance to prove he’s ready in the spring, but Hosmer’s presence allows them to be patient should he need more time at Triple A. The fact that Hosmer will get a league-minimum $720,000, while the Padres continue to pay off the rest of his deal, and isn’t viewed as a significant future piece means the Cubs can cut bait should he prove not capable of producing at a league-average level or above.

The DH is also available if Mervis forces the issue and Hosmer produces. Only two players on the Cubs’ 40-man roster — Bellinger and Patrick Wisdom — have logged innings at first base in the last two seasons, so adding more at the position was a must, even if it wasn’t the significant addition some hoped for.

A lot of the negativity surrounding Hosmer may be due to expectations versus production. He was once one of the top prospects in baseball, but only three times in his 12-year career has he posted a 120 wRC+ or better. He parlayed a career-best 135 wRC+ in his 2017 walk year with Kansas City into an eight-year, $144 million deal with the San Diego Padres. The acquisition obviously came with high expectations for the left-handed first baseman, but he never came close to matching any of his best years with the Royals. After heading to Boston late last summer as part of what amounted to a salary dump by the Padres, Hosmer was DFA’d in the middle of December and became a free agent later that month.

Advertisement

Hosmer has a career 107 wRC+, the same mark he’s managed over the last three seasons combined. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but the Cubs are just looking for some confidence in the type of production they may get at first base. Hosmer’s floor, along with his low strikeout rate and a reputation for being well-liked by teammates, are positives to the deal.

The negatives aren’t too dissimilar from the concerns when he first signed in San Diego. Since 2018, only three players have had a higher ground-ball rate than Hosmer’s 56.5 percent. Accordingly, his power output has rarely reached the level one would expect from a first baseman. In his last two full seasons, he’s had a combined ISO of .120, similar to players like Elvis Andrus, Tony Kemp and Manuel Margot, all of whom provide value in other areas.

For certain teams, that lack of power can be covered by others in the lineup. Unfortunately, the Cubs are not one of those teams. Team president Jed Hoyer mentioned after the season that adding power would be nice. But there wasn’t that much power available on the open market, and while they’ve brought in some potential, most of it is just a wash, at best, with the loss of Contreras.

Despite having four Gold Gloves to his name, the last of which came in 2017, the advanced metrics rate Hosmer as a weak defender at first. But it’s not as if anyone who manned the position for the Cubs in 2022 excelled defensively. The minimal financial impact of the deal should allow Hoyer to continue to add to the roster. The Cubs can also easily cut bait should Mervis prove capable of giving them similar or better production.

Mervis should still get a shot to make the team out of camp, but there’s now the insurance of an established first baseman should he need more time in Iowa. If Hoyer doesn’t spend the rest of his remaining budget on veterans for the bullpen, he can still look to add another more powerful bat. He could still choose to pursue the right-handed Trey Mancini, who could get time at first with Hosmer as a platoon situation and also DH. Hoyer could look to upgrade third base and have Wisdom get more time at first as well. Trades to upgrade either corner infield spot are possible, especially if it comes with little financial commitment for 2023.

Advertisement

The Cubs are still an imperfect roster with needs at various levels. But by even slightly upgrading three positions that were among the worst in baseball, improving upon their defense significantly and continuing to add pitching, they’ve given themselves a chance to build on last season’s 74 wins. These types of players don’t give the Cubs a high ceiling, but they can help them avoid bottoming out. Still, Hoyer must continue to look to add and upgrade as he attempts to put a team together that can compete in a weak division and try to get back into the postseason.

(Top photo: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2lscGxiaHxzfJFsZmlpX2WBcK%2FUm6pmnaKesG60zqyknqpdm7azv9NmmZqrlWQ%3D