How the Cardinals starting rotation is shaping up for 2023

With under two months remaining before pitchers and catchers report to their respective spring camps, the majority of this winter’s top free-agent starters are off the board. The Cardinals weren’t expected to be buyers for any of the premier starting pitchers, such as Jacob deGrom (who signed for five years and $185 million with Texas), or Justin Verlander, who joined the Mets on a two-year, $86.7 million deal. They also missed on Carlos Rodón, largely regarded as the most optimal starting pitcher on the market when taking into consideration his age and recent success, as the 30-year-old left-hander agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees last week.

Advertisement

Yet even the second-tier starting pitchers, arms considered to be solid middle-of-the-rotation options, didn’t warrant much attention from St. Louis. Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon all signed multi-year deals, each with different clubs. The Cardinals also let José Quintana — their Game 1 starter in the wild-card series — slip away on a two-year, $26 million deal to the Mets, though carrying three left-handed starters in a rotation could have been tricky. The only free agent starter St. Louis signed was Adam Wainwright, and that was going to be a given once the 41-year-old decided he’d like to play for one final season.

He ain’t goin out like that.

ICYMI: Inside Adam Wainwright’s return to St. Louis, his thoughts on what will be his final season, and how the ending of 2022 season propelled him to playing one more year. #STLCards https://t.co/lU3bWyluoN

— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) October 27, 2022

So what does the Cardinals’ lack of moves in free agency say about their plans for their rotation? There are several things to consider here. Let’s first begin with the organization’s need for a starting catcher. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and the rest of the front office found it imperative to pause all other major decision-making until they had decided who they wanted their new catcher to be and the best means to acquire him. Once they decided on a five-year, $87.5 million deal for Willson Contreras, the path for which they could proceed for the rest of the offseason became much clearer.

Should the 2023 season start today and the Cardinals rolled out their projected starting rotation, they’d be fine, all things considered. Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery and Steven Matz would be their five starters (though not necessarily in that order) and Dakota Hudson would be the likely favorite for a sixth-starter and swing-man hybrid role. Unlike springs prior, St. Louis also has plenty of depth. This isn’t the beginning of the 2021 season when the Cardinals had two starters on the injured list before Opening Day, or like 2022 when the fifth starter had yet to be decided, even in the final week of camp. Jake Woodford could rival Hudson for the swingman role, Drew VerHagen will see a legitimate chance for redemption in spring after a disappointing 2022, and both Andre Pallante and Zack Thompson proved they could spot start in their rookie campaigns last season (though there’s a convincing argument to be made both Thompson and Pallante should stay in the bullpen, given their success in relief). From a prospect side, Matthew Liberatore could be an option, if he shows a better fastball command. The Cardinals are also high on 22-year-old right-hander Gordon Graceffo, who was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year after his first full professional season.

Yes, the Cardinals have options, many of them fairly encouraging. But before we delve into the rotation any further, let’s emphasize just how important that is, especially when it pertains to how St. Louis could upgrade the rotation going forward. The Cardinals are not looking to cover innings or for patchwork depth. A one-year gamble on a fringe arm does them no good and would also clog up their abundance of internal possibilities.

Advertisement

What the Cardinals would benefit from however is an experienced starter on a multi-year deal. Of the club’s current starting rotation, only Matz is guaranteed a contract for the 2024 season. Wainwright will retire, Flaherty and Montgomery are set to be free agents for the first time in their respective careers, and Mikolas’ contract will expire. The Cardinals surely will explore potential extension opportunities, with Mikolas the likely front-runner to accept one, but if Mozeliak was to explore adding one more starting pitcher, it would almost certainly come on a two-year deal at minimum.

During both the GM Meetings in November and MLB’s Winter Meetings earlier in the month, Mozeliak didn’t deny the Cardinals could search for more ways to improve their pitching staff. While adding another stopgap starter could have been an ideal solution, the front office was searching for a specific prototype, like a veteran arm with durability, versatility and experience. Those types of pitchers are now widely off the free-agent market, though a couple of intriguing names remain.

Nathan Eovaldi is one of those names. The 32-year-old right-hander is coming off a 2022 season with Boston where he posted a 3.87 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and averaged fewer than two walks per nine innings over 20 starts, even while hampered with a lower back injury and shoulder soreness later in the year. Eovaldi rejected the Red Sox’s qualifying offer in November, so if the Cardinals decide to sign him, they would lose a draft pick. That might be a deterrent given how well director of scouting Randy Flores and his staff has done in recent drafts. But Eovaldi’s track record speaks for itself. He would come on a multi-year offer and give the Cardinals protection heading into 2024, he has ample postseason experience and would slot in the upper half of the rotation.

Trade possibilities also remain on the table. An alluring factor in signing Contreras was the fact the organization was able to retain its prospect depth and keep the core of its club intact. The Cardinals have a pool of intriguing young talent at the major-league and minor-league levels and they could tap into those resources to make a trade for a top-tier starter if one becomes available. Mozeliak could also wait until the trade deadline and swap a deal if necessary, but trades that go down in July historically favor sellers, and that’s not a position anyone in the organization envisions being in this summer.

There is also a very real possibility that the five names mentioned above are the Cardinals’ five starters when pitchers and catchers report to Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 12. If that’s the case, it means the Cardinals are counting on three things: Wainwright and Mikolas adding onto their reliable 2022 performances, Matz rebounding after two unfortunate injuries and Flaherty leading the staff. Betting on Mikolas and Wainwright is understandable — even after Wainwright’s poor showing in September, one he attributed to a shortened stride length and delivery after taking a comebacker off his knee in late August against Atlanta. Mikolas did not miss a start in 2022 while Wainwright missed only one, and both made 32 starts in the season — one start shy of the major-league-high.

Steven Matz had a 1.69 ERA over his last five appearances of 2022, all in relief. (Jeff Curry / USA Today)

The expectation for Matz is he’ll report to spring training at full strength, with no lingering side effects regarding the torn left MCL he sustained in July. That Matz was able to return and compete in the final weeks of the 2022 season — albeit in a relief role — was especially encouraging. The Cardinals are counting on Matz to provide stability in the back end of the rotation, and neither his MCL injury nor the shoulder soreness he experienced earlier in the year are believed to be factors going forward.

Advertisement

The real wild card for the rotation is Flaherty. It’s been over three years since he dominated the National League in his age-23 season, and given his injury history over the past 18 months, skepticism regarding if he can ever return to that point is warranted. However, before his bizarre oblique injury in 2021, Flaherty was compiling an All-Star-caliber season, and though most of his 2022 season was derailed with shoulder issues, he began to show flashes of his pre-injury self towards the end of the year. Mozeliak indicated during the Winter Meetings that Flaherty was in the midst of a healthy and unimpeded offseason as he trains back in Los Angeles, and the expectation is he’ll report to spring training ready to start with no limitations.

Flaherty is 27 now and in his final year of arbitration. If the Cardinals ultimately decide not to add to the front of the rotation, his expected role could not be more clear: The Cardinals would be relying on him to be the ace of the staff, or at least will give him the opportunity to claim it. Flaherty is already expected to be a top-of-the-rotation arm, and he’s currently the only starting pitcher of the projected five that generates consistently high strikeout and swing-and-miss rates. St. Louis can often bank on weak ground-ball contact given the state of their consistently good infield, but recent trends, especially in the postseason, have only further emphasized the importance of inducing swing and miss. If Flaherty has a strong spring and is able to headline the staff, the overall perception of the Cardinals’ rotation certainly becomes much, much higher.

But the front office must decide how comfortable they are with their five starters, and how much they are willing to gamble in the early part of the season. There is still plenty of offseason to go, and the majority of deals so far have come via free agency, so there is still time for a trade to be made if one makes sense. Any upcoming moves for the Cardinals however are likely to come after the New Year.

Even after the addition of Contreras, there are plenty of directions Mozeliak can look to improve his club for 2023. The offense was addressed with Contreras, though the team still could use another left-handed bat. There are also plenty of questions regarding the outfield, including Tyler O’Neill’s health and Dylan Carlson’s resiliency. Though teams can always use pitching, regardless of roster status or time of year, with the way the pitching depth is currently constructed for St. Louis, the Cardinals might be better off improving other areas of the club, at least for now.

(Top photo of Jack Flaherty: Philip G. Pavely / USA Today)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2locm1lbnxzfJFrZmpqX2d%2FcK%2FAq5uippGhwG5%2Bj2tqZquklr%2B1tc2gZKunpJbBqrvNaA%3D%3D