Commanders mock draft scenarios: Six variations, including trades up and down
Strictly speaking of the football product, and to use a term popular in today’s culture, the Washington Commanders are the definition of mid. So is their first pick in next week’s NFL Draft.
Coming off 7-9 and 7-10 seasons under coach Ron Rivera, the team somehow finished last season with a .500 record despite a 17-game schedule. Now in a first round with only 31 picks — the league stripped the Dolphins of their selection — the Commanders hold the 16th pick. Right in the middle. A spot where mental dexterity and contingency plans become paramount.
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Likely too low to grab top targets at some positions, but ideally situated to start a run at others. Far enough away from the top 10 that a trade-up would become profoundly costly, but high enough that teams below might pay a premium to maneuver for a sliding-yet-coveted player.
These details could be significant or matter little, depending on Washington’s positional and individual prospect desires and how picks 1-15 fall. What’s clear is the need to consider numerous paths. Previous editions of this seven-round multi-mock draft have explored three scenarios for the Commanders. This year, we’re doubling the fun.
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This exercise is about gauging the realistic options and scenarios, particularly in the early rounds, and the butterfly effect with each choice. Three of these mocks make choices for Washington’s current eight picks. The other three include trades in both directions, but not for shock value. Dealing down in the first round last year worked swimmingly, eventually netting Washington Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson, Sam Howell and Cole Turner. That direction is logical for this cycle based on needs and projections.
Washington’s primary needs are offensive line and cornerback, followed by linebacker and tight end. Uncertain futures with Chase Young and Montez Sweat puts edge rushers on the shortlist. Finding running back depth would work. The Commanders hope Howell and Jacoby Brissett boost the sport’s most important position.
For this exercise, and using The Athletic draft analyst Dane Brugler’s big board as a rankings guide, I worked off the assumption that players with positional fits for Washington who likely won’t be available at 16 include:
- Four quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis)
- Three offensive linemen (Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones)
- Two cornerbacks (Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon)
Mock 1: Feeling needy
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 16 | Darnell Wright | OT | |
2 | 47 | DJ Turner | CB | |
3 | 97 | Ricky Stromberg | C | |
4 | 118 | DeMarvion Overshown | LB | |
5 | 150 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | QB | |
6 | 193 | Deuce Vaughn | RB | |
6 | 215 | Derrius Davis | WR/KR | |
7 | 233 | Ali Gaye | DE |
All of Washington’s apparent needs outside of tight end — a position that Rivera backs as constituted — get addressed here.
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Mock drafters often choose Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. at 16. That’s possible if coaches, burned by William Jackson III’s inability to adjust to their zone-heavy schemes, think the natural press corner fits defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s system. Going with a cornerback and then an offensive lineman in the second feels like a preferred scenario. Washington’s interior spots are not settled, and Skoronski might be the only guard or center picked in the first.
But here, we go the opposite way. Brugler’s top 100 prospects list includes 14 cornerbacks, or one fewer than the number of tackles (eight), guards (five), and centers (two) combined.
Wright shined at right tackle last season against SEC dynamos like Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson. Multiple scouts have Wright, Brugler’s fourth tackle, ranked above Broderick Jones. Perhaps an outlier, but ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. recently mocked Wright at No. 9. This approach would kick free-agent signee Andrew Wylie to guard, a position he played before switching to right tackle in 2021. This would strengthen the interior and give the unit a potential stud at tackle, assuming the coaches concur with the shifting.
Washington does not have an apparent third corner or slot defender. Turner, Brugler’s seventh-ranked CB, isn’t the tallest option at just under 6-foot, but he ran the fastest 40-yard dash (4.26) at this year’s combine.
Brugler: Turner’s limited length and play strength are amplified versus bigger targets, but he is smart, explosive and competitive and should continue to ascend in coverage. He doesn’t back down and shows the movement ability and toughness desired at nickel in the NFL.
4.27u 😳😳😳@UMichFootball DB DJ Turner II is turning heads.
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Based on Brugler’s rankings, this would be 10ish picks early for Stromberg, but the powerful lineman would put a long-term center on the roster. … The experienced and mobile Thompson-Robinson would receive a year of seasoning before taking over QB2 duties in 2024. … An interesting prospect to replace J.D. McKissic is Vaughn, a 5-foot-5 playmaker who overcame a lack of size to lead FBS in all-purpose yards (1,936) while totaling 42 receptions.
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Mock 2: Heavy in the trenches
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 16 | Lukas Van Ness | DE | |
2 | 47 | Cody Mauch | G | |
3 | 97 | Tyler Steen | OT | |
4 | 118 | Jakorian Bennett | CB | |
5 | 150 | Kenny McIntosh | RB | |
6 | 193 | Ronnie Hickman | S | |
6 | 215 | Ventrell Miller | LB | |
7 | 233 | Tyson Bagent | QB |
Skimping on the lines sinks teams.
Young’s fifth-year option — which would come with a guaranteed $17.45 million salary in 2024 — is Washington’s biggest non-sale and non-draft topic outstanding. Taking an edge rusher in the first round would be excessive for 2023 needs, but Van Ness would pencil in as the primary sub this season and the 2024 starter.
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The explosive 272-pounder did not start one game in college but played starter snaps. That odd combination puts his draft range from 8 to 20. The Commanders’ unique picture means they could strongly consider snagging the powerful lineman, who has Rivera’s desired position flexibility, at 16.
Brugler sees Van Ness needing guidance with his “pass-rush construction and overall pacing, but he is an ascending player and competes like a grizzly bear with his fierce power and explosive twitch.”
Then Washington goes offensive line on Day 2, starting with Mauch, who is considered capable at all five positions. Now that’s position flex. The three-year starting left tackle could start at guard initially before possibly replacing Charles Leno at left tackle in 2024.
Bennett isn’t the Maryland pass defender most commonly mentioned for the Commanders, but Deonte Banks’ tag-team partner stands out with 4.30 speed and a knack for getting his hands on the ball (29 pass deflections in his last 24 games).
Mock 3: Best player available
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 16 | Bijan Robinson | RB | |
2 | 47 | Luke Musgrave | TE | |
3 | 97 | A.T. Perry | WR | |
4 | 118 | Dorian Williams | LB | |
5 | 150 | Stetson Bennett | QB | |
6 | 193 | Carrington Valentine | CB | |
6 | 215 | Atonio Mafi | G | |
7 | 233 | Mekhi Garner | CB |
We take a standard draft notion to the extremes.
Brugler’s seven-round mock for the Commanders begins with his sixth-ranked prospect. We follow that lead, even if adding Bijan Robinson to the Brian Robinson-Antonio Gibson partnership screams position overload. Here’s the thing: If Robinson is the “complete package” as a runner and receiver, as stated universally by the draft community, he would be the best running back for a team that wants to run often and take pressure off a young QB.
Bijan Robinson is the best RB prospect since _____
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Brugler: Running back isn’t a glaring need on the Washington roster, but the chance to add a premier playmaker like Robinson would be tough to pass up. For an organization ready to trot out Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Robinson would bring some offensive excitement for the fan base and new ownership.
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This would provide offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy with another high-tempo threat to his offense. Problem: Gibson would become the odd man out with minimal trade value entering the final year of his contract.
Rivera’s belief in the tight end room might prove accurate, but plenty of ifs exist. Or, Washington could dip into a deep tight end class. Why not target Musgrave, a solid dual threat with route-running chops and quickness off the line?
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Wide receiver isn’t a need, but the room lacks size, and the 6-foot-3 Perry, Brugler’s No. 98 prospect, runs sub 4.5 40. … Brugler’s mock, beyond the Robinson choice, hits on Washington’s needs in the early rounds — and includes Williams. The Commanders brought the rangy athlete in for a Top 30 visit, and Brugler sees a player with “tools desired for a modern-day developmental linebacker.”… Taking Bennett is more about sensing how Washington assesses the two-time national champion with Taylor Heinicke’s grit but a stronger arm.
Mock 4: Small trade down
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 20* | Deonte Banks | CB | |
2 | 47 | Cody Mauch | G | |
3 | 83* | Darius Rush | CB | |
3 | 97 | Nick Saldiveri | OT | |
4 | 118 | DeMarvion Overshown | LB | |
5 | 150 | Stetson Bennett | QB | |
5 | 154* | Andrew Vorhees | G | |
6 | 193 | Viliami Fehoko | DE | |
6 | 215 | Demario Douglas | WR | |
7 | 233 | Chad Ryland | K |
*Commanders trade No. 16 to Seahawks for Nos. 20, 83, 154
This would be a minor drop in the first without falling a talent tier at cornerback.
The extra third gives Washington four top-100 picks, which matches Philadelphia for the division high (though the Eagles have two in the first round). That additional fifth means Washington takes a chance on Vorhees, a five-year starter whose draft stock tumbled after he suffered an ACL tear during drills at the combine. Wait a year, and the Commanders have a possible 2024 starting left guard with Mauch shifting to tackle.
As for Banks, the corner class is considered deep, but the top two tiers include only six to seven prospects. The Maryland alum delivered one of the most breathtaking showings at the combine, is a willing tackler and would (along with Rush) give Washington a future hedge with 2024 free agent Kendall Fuller.
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Brugler: Banks needs to add more discipline to his play style, but when he trusts his technique, he has the size, athleticism, and physicality of an NFL starter. He projects best as an outside, press-man cornerback with upside in zone looks.
Overshown, a 229-pound linebacker who clocked a 4.56 in the 40, offers sub package and special teams help. Lastly, the real kicker with having 10 picks is taking one. Cool with some Joey Slye competition?
Seattle’s motivation to trade up would be to grab one of the remaining higher-end edge rushers by dealing away some of its 10 selections.
Mock 5: Big trade down
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 31* | Brian Branch | S | |
2 | 39** | O'Cyrus Torrence | G | |
2 | 63* | Cam Smith | CB | |
3 | 97 | Zach Harrison | DE | |
4 | 150 | Kenny McIntosh | RB | |
6 | 193 | Dee Winters | LB | |
6 | 215 | Derrius Davis | WR/KR | |
7 | 233 | Dante Stills | DT |
*Commanders trade No. 16 to Chiefs for Nos. 31, 63, 166 and 2024 third-round pick
**Commanders trade Nos. 47, 118, 166 to Panthers for No. 39
The savvy, fun version.
“Trading back makes sense for Washington,” a front executive on another team said,” because the drop off from 16 to 25-35 is minimal.”
Dropping down 15 slots in the first isn’t only about 2023, though the extra picks allow Washington to trade for a second top-40 selection and make a safety-guard start more palatable from a position value perspective., The future third-round selection adds ammunition for a potential trade in 2024 with a potentially loaded QB class, including D.C. native and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.
Multiple talent evaluators told The Athletic they see Branch going late in the first or early in the second round. That’s not a universal view. Brugler’s big board has Branch 16th, the only safety in his top 69. Don’t limit Branch to safety, and remember Washington has a hole for its fifth starting defensive back.
More "30" visits for the Commanders to report, per sources:
* Alabama S Brian Branch
* Texas LB Demarvion Overshown
* UCLA G Atonio Mafi
* Michigan CB D.J. Turner
* TCU G/C Steve Avila is also on the list.
* Mississippi St. CB Emmanuel Forbes is expected to visit this week.
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) April 9, 2023
Brugler: Branch might not have elite size/speed measurables, but he is above average in almost every other category NFL teams covet with his well-rounded game to run, cover and tackle. He projects as a starting nickel in the NFL and offers hybrid versatility across the secondary.
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The Super Bowl champion Chiefs, in this scenario, would parlay some of their 10 picks into replacing one of their departed starters at edge rusher, offensive tackle or wide receiver.
Like Branch, Torrence might hear his name called in the top 25. Washington has clocked the competitive “Cybo” at each step of the pre-draft cycle. Torrence did not allow a sack during his college career. Making a 1-for-3 pick exchange would work for Carolina, which has only six selections.
Davis returned two punts for touchdowns last season, and the speedster (4.36 at the combine) would challenge Dax Milne for a roster spot.
Mock 6: Trade up
| Rd. | No. | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 13* | Devon Witherspoon | CB | |
2 | 47 | Jack Campbell | LB | |
4 | 118 | Jaelyn Duncan | OT | |
6 | 193 | Keaton Mitchell | RB | |
6 | 207* | Juice Scruggs | G/C | |
6 | 215 | Payne Durham | TE | |
7 | 233 | DeMarcco Hellams | S |
*Commanders trade Nos. 16, 97, 150 to Jets for Nos. 13, 207
Folks love the trade-down scenarios for the extra picks, but the real juice is moving up for talent.
Here, we considered only modest moves up and assumed quarterbacks weren’t an option. Of the primary building block positions, offensive tackle and cornerback fit Washington’s overt needs. The gap between Wright and others is negligible. Witherspoon is another story.
While the consensus All-American sometimes lets his aggressive side run wild, Witherspoon’s “fiery play personality is a positive, along with his cover athleticism, ball skills and finishing toughness,” Brugler writes. “He projects as an immediate NFL starter with scheme versatility.”
Linebacker is the weakest unit on defense, but almost by design based on emphasis. Campbell’s intangibles and “egoless” nature could have the coaching staff push for the All-American.
The next four picks help the offense. Duncan didn’t surge as hoped during the pre-draft circuit, but he’s considered one of the most athletic tackles in this class.
(Photo of Lukas Van Ness: Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)
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